Mapping out Europe’s Response to Grey Zone Escalations against Taiwan
Executive Summary
The government of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is carrying out a range of grey zone activities to undermine Taiwan’s autonomy, wear down its defensive capabilities and pressure its people into unification with the PRC.
Grey zone activities allow the PRC to strengthen its position against Taiwan while minimising the risk of an international response. Recent examples include near-daily incursions of military aircraft past the median line, large-scale military drills and economic coercion.
This paper maps out a range of scenarios where the PRC could escalate grey zone activities against Taiwan. European policymakers must be prepared for a full range of scenarios, from incursions into Taiwan’s contiguous zone to a ‘quarantine’ of Taiwanese goods and occupation of outlying islands.
Europe has a clear strategic and economic interest in maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. Countering the PRC’s unilateral attempts to alter the status quo through grey zone tactics is essential to de-escalating the risk of conflict and is in line with European governments’ long-standing policy on the PRC and Taiwan.
This paper presents an anti-grey zone strategy that seeks to deter further escalations by taking proportionate, timely and effective responses to the PRC’s tactics, while also acting to strengthen long-term preparedness. This strategy consists of:
Raising the cost of the PRC’s grey zone tactics: By responding to grey zone escalations with diplomatic statements, sanctions on PRC military companies and proportionate engagements with Taiwan, European governments can help shift the cost-benefit calculus for Beijing to deter further escalations.
Strengthening Taiwan’s long term resilience: By sharing its world leading expertise in cyber-security, infrastructure resilience and renewable energy, Europe can help Taiwan build resilience to the PRC’s grey zone tactics while also providing major opportunities to European businesses.
Reaffirming the international rules-based order: By using their significant diplomatic influence, European governments can reinforce the rules and norms that underpin peace and stability in the region, from upholding freedom of navigation to countering the PRC’s attempts to exclude Taiwan from multilateral systems.