Evaluating China’s Space Capabilities and Ambitions
China’s space ambitions now outpace every other country – even the US. From the establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, the Chinese Communist Party has always seen space as key to cementing China’s status as a global superpower. Yet China’s space ambitions are about far more than building international status. Space capabilities are seen by China’s leadership as critical to economic security and military superiority, particularly as it seeks to control the strategic technologies of the future.
This paper, published with the Martens Center, investigates China’s rapidly advancing space capabilities and what risks this poses to European security and competitiveness, through analysing:
China’s space development to date: China has laid out an ambitious space roadmap to 2045, and has a track record of consistently meeting major milestones – from launching its own space station to deploying satellite constellations.
The military dimension of China’s space programme: Space capabilities are central to China’s military modernisation project, including joint operations, intelligence, and precision strikes capabilities – all of which could prove vital in any future conflict with Taiwan.
The role of commercial enterprises: China’s commercial space firms are expanding rapidly but remain state-controlled, with systems like BeiDou enhancing both civilian and military positioning and communications.
Risks to Europe’s competitiveness and security: China’s advances raises the risk of being locked-in to Chinese space technologies, exposing infrastructure to espionage, sabotage and coercion.
Driving innovation across Europe’s space sector: Europe must increase funding, support innovative SMEs, and build on areas of comparative advantage, such as existing capabilities in earth observation.
European space leadership on the international stage: Europe should lead global efforts to modernise space governance and establish clear rules for responsible and sustainable space activity.